A trio of bets for this weekend’s Italian action
Sampdoria v Roma – Saturday
Sampdoria have made an excellent start, winning both their games, though it should be noted that both Fiorentina and Benevento are amongst the five teams still pointless this term, with the former already shipping five goals. The Viola had a fire-sale approach to their summer transfer window, and perhaps putting a couple past them wasn’t the achievement some might have thought. Meanwhile, on the early evidence of this season Roma don’t look to have as many goals in them after the departure of Mo Salah. They’ve netted just once in each of their two games so far, compared with last season where they scored 20 in their final six fixtures and averaged 2.7 goals-per-game across the campaign. We think under 2.5 goals looks a over-price here.
Tip: Under 2.5
Lazio v AC Milan [Total Goals Over/Under]
Lazio v AC Milan – Sunday
Milan’s summer investment looks to have paid off so far as they’ve been ahead at half-time and full-time in both their opening games and have scored five goals in the process. Lazio recorded an impressive 5th placed finish last term, one higher than Milan, who struggled when travelling to their fellow top-seven sides as they lost three of six winless games. However, whilst Lazio have largely kept the same personnel, Milan’s squad has been revamped and it is for this reason we think they’ve been underestimated in the market. Lazio were W1-D1-L4 hosting top-seven opposition last term, and after Simone Inzaghi’s side suffered a disappointing goalless stalemate in their opening home game against promoted SPAL, we’re backing Milan to continue their impressive start with another victory.
Tip: AC Milan
Lazio v AC Milan
Cagliari v Crotone – Sunday
Cagliari may share the foot of the table on goal difference with Fiorentina, but they’ve endured a really tough start to the campaign with trips to Juve and big spenders Milan. They lost 14 times on their travels last season, but were in the top half based on home results alone, and whilst they’ve moved into a new stadium they were W9-D1-L0 hosting sides outside the top nine, with both teams scoring in seven of these victories. Crotone held a W2-D3-L6 record travelling to sides between 6th and 16th last term, though they only failed to score in three of these games. We expect Cagliari to take home the points, but having conceded more goals at home than anyone other than rock bottom Pescara last season, we’re backing Cagliari/both teams to score.
Cagliari v Crotone [Match Result And Both Teams To Score]