Ajax can take a lead into the second leg of their Europa League semi-final.

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Ajax were beaten at PSV on Sunday, almost certainly ending their domestic challenge, but their recent form has otherwise been very good. Lyon, meanwhile, won at Angers on Friday despite several absences but this is the real focus for the rest of their season as they cannot catch the top three in Ligue 1.

Since 2000, home sides have gone W19-D12-L3 in the 34 first legs of Europa League semi-finals, with 62% having fewer than three goals. That immediately suggests Ajax are too big at 2.4>>>>. They look an even bigger price when considering that they’ve won all six home games in this season’s Europa League, including five by either 1-0 or 2-0 scores and five where they were ahead by half-time. Their 2017 home record is also perfect, as they’ve won all 10 matches here while scoring 28 goals and conceding just four.

Like Ajax, Lyon needed extra-time in the last round as they eventually edged past Besiktas on penalties. They’ve lost the away leg 2-1 in each of the past two rounds and while they carry a goal threat they are certainly vulnerable at the back. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches and only one in 13 on the road since the start of December.

Ajax are missing both full-backs through suspensions but the biggest absences could be Lyon’s, with Alexandre Lacazette doubtful and star midfielder Corentin Tolisso unlikely to make it after limping off on Friday night.

Ajax

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