Croatia will have to get past a miserly Greek defence if they are to make it to Russia.

Croatia disappointed in Group I as they came second behind Iceland, while Greece will have just been happy to secure the runners-up spot in Group H, trailing expected qualifiers Belgium. In fact, though the Greeks netted less than half the total Roberto Martinez’s side managed, they did match Belgium’s defensive record of just six goals conceded, meaning seven of their last 10 overall have seen fewer than three goals.

Croatia hold an excellent home record in qualifiers, winning seven of 10 unbeaten games over the last two campaigns. However, whereas they managed to net 17 goals in front of their own fans in qualification for France 2016, this cycle they only managed six. Each of their five home games in Group I saw Under 2.5 Goals, and with both teams wary of a damaging first leg result we’re expecting a low-scoring encounter.

Tip: Under 2.5

Croatia v Greece [Total Goals Over/Under]

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Despite Croatia’s good home record in qualifiers, we’re still surprised to see Greece as big as 11/1 for this one. The Euro 2004 winners are a tough side to break down, only losing the first half once in their last 19 matches, whilst they’re unbeaten on the road in seven. These included a stalemate in Belgium and a victory over Netherlands, so there should be some value backing the visitors on the double chance.

Tip: Greece-Draw

Croatia v Greece [Double Chance]

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Tip: Draw/Draw

Croatia v Greece [Half Time/Full Time]

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