The best bets from the third week of the new Bundesliga season.
Hamburg v RB Leipzig– Friday
Hamburg are generally a tough side to beat at home as they’ve lost just five of 18 at the Volksparkstadion since the start of last term but three of those came against last season’s top-three including a 4-0 thumping at the hands of Leipzig themselves. They’ve made a good start but this will undoubtedly be their toughest test to date and they’ve generally been relegation battlers in recent times. Leipzig were W8-D3-L2 when travelling to sides outside the top-five last term and so they look a big price to win here. Many thought that Leipzig would lose some of their best performers from last term but if anything they look stronger after the transfer window having kept Keita for another season and brought in some exciting youngsters. We expect them to be up there with the likes of Bayern and Dortmund once again and they certainly have more than enough quality to get the job done here.
Tip: RB Leipzig
Hamburg v RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich – Saturday
Hoffenheim narrowly avoided relegation in 2016 but they had an excellent season last term under 30 year old coach Julian Nagelsmann as they finished 4th. They won their opener against Bremen meaning they remain unbeaten at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena since the start of last season, with one of their 12 victories a 1-0 triumph over Bayern themselves. With Lahm and Alonso retiring and the likes of Ribery and Robben ageing there is a concern that Bayern may not be as strong as last season and so this looks a good opportunity to take them on. They won just one of their eight trips to fellow top-half sides by more than one goal last term and were only W2-D1-L2 at top-six opponents. We’re backing Hoffenheim +1 on the Asian Handicap at 2.23 which means if they avoid defeat our bet’s a winner and if they get beaten by one goal, we get our stake back.
Tip: Hoffenheim +1
Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich [Asian Handicap]
Hertha Berlin v Werder Bremen– Sunday
No side had a bigger split between their home and away performances last term than Hertha as they won 12 times at home but just three on the road. That trend looks set to continue as they’ve won at home but lost away already this term and for a side that are W12-D0-L2 when hosting sides outside the top-four since the start of last season, they look a over-priced here at evens. Bremen are yet to pick up a point or indeed score this term and are now W2-D1-L6 when travelling to top-half sides since the start of last season, conceding 25 goals across these (2.8 goals per game). They also trailed at the break in six of these matches and so while the Hertha/Hertha Half Time/Full Time is of interest at 3.2, we’re going to stick with the hosts to win as our best bet.
Tip : Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin v Werder Bremen