The safest betting approach in current betting markets in Kenya and all over the globe is the arbitrage betting strategy. Arbs else referred to as Surebets, is a profit must approach since arbitrage betting is a risk-free opportunity rarely availed in some of the betting sites and sporting activities. In arbitrage betting, we are expected to compare odds offered by several betting sites which can be two or more. The profit will be earned as an advantage of the highly different odds offered by each bookmaker.

Categories of arbitrage bets

There are two methods of arbitraging; balanced odds arbitrage and unbalanced odds arbitraging. Finding an arbitrage opportunity is not that easy, but using our guide we will show you how to get an arbitrage bet. Using similar mathematical formulae used in the calculation of bookmaker’s commission margin, we will be able to find arbitrage bets. We add the implied probabilities of each of the best betting odds availed under every outcome. Therefore arbitraging demands that you involve only high odd wagers. Calculating implied probabilities will prompt us to divide each odd in decimal format by one.

Balanced odds Arbitrages

We can have two teams, Arsenal playing Tottenham and two betting sites A & B offering relatively high odds for each team. Using the above entities we shall understand the concept of balanced arbitrage betting:

Arsenal are assigned an odd of 2.8 by bookmaker A                                                               

Tottenham are assigned 2.8 in bookmaker B

This is a perfect arbitrage opportunity as upon betting with $100 for Arsenal and $100 for Tottenham; we are guaranteed a profit. The profit shall be $80 once any of the team wins, but a draw means you lose heavily.

Total stake invested= $200

Arsenal = +$280

Tottenham= -$280

Profit= $80

Unbalanced odds arbitrage: Unbalanced arbitrage bets are hard to identify, and their calculation ends up presenting difficulties to arbitrage betting analysts. How can we identify arbitrage bets from unbalanced odds?

Arbitrage bets identification calculations

Here is a formula to use when calculating arbitrage odds in balanced and unbalanced odds scenarios.

1/Odds in decimal * multiplied by 100%

For instance, in the Arsenal and Tottenham example, we could identify the arbitrage opportunity through the following procedure

Arsenal= 1/2.80*100= 35.71%

Tottenham= 1/2.80*100=35.7%

Add the two percentages to get the arbitrage percentage, and it should give us 71.42% which is a great profit-making arbitrage. Arbitrage betting percentage is more favorable when lower than 100%, thus the lower the arb percentage value, the more profit you are set to take home.

Identifying an arbitrage opportunity from unbalanced odds

Take an example of Kim playing John in a badminton event. Kim is given an odd of 1.2 while John is at an odd of 8. Calculate their specific implied probabilities:

Kim= 1/1.2*100= 83.3%

John= 1/8*100= 12.5%

Total arbitrage= 95.8%

Note: Arbitrage betting works perfectly in events where a winner must be found, thus try to identify matches in which there is a very low possibility of ending up in a draw.

Arbitrage betting in football

Get arbitrage bets at 22bet Kenya;

We have considered betting in matches with only two outcomes. How about arbitrage betting in football market which has three possible outcomes, 1X2? Let’s consider a scenario where Arsenal Vs Tottenham match may end up with either side winning or a draw. We can still get arbitrage for this by including the draw’s implied probability in our calculations. After getting the implied probabilities of each selection that’s Home, Draw and away win possibilities, proceed to calculate the appropriate stake to wager on each selection. The stake amount will be gotten by first getting the total arbitrage value, and then proceed to apply the following stake calculation formulae for arbitrage markets in football:

Implied possibility/ Total arbitrage* (multiplied by) stake amount

The implied possibility will be one divided by each selection’s odds in decimal format. Calculate the stake amount to use in each of your arbitrage bet selections.


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