Netherlands v Sweden – Tuesday

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The Netherlands are in serious danger of missing their second major tournament in a row as their transitional period. Since finishing third at the 2014 World Cup they’ve won just half of their 14 home matches, losing six of eight against top-40 sides (we have Sweden 18th). Although they lost narrowly 1-0 to France, they’ve shown signs of improvement in these qualifiers, netting 12 times in victories over the remaining Group A sides. Scoring goals has never been the issue but just three clean sheets at home since Brazil 2014 has meant eight of the 14 matches have had at least four strikes. We fancy Over 3.5 Goals to land again versus a Swedish side whose recent road fixtures have been exciting affairs. They’ve scored in each of their last seven but also have defensive frailties, with their only two clean sheets in this time coming against Luxemburg and Belarus, as four have featured four or more goals.

Tip: Over 3.5

Netherlands v Sweden [Total Goals Over/Under]

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