Walsall look value to see of midlands rivals Port Vale on Tuesday night.
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Jon Whitney has apologised to Walsall fans for a lacklustre first-half showing in the Midlands derby with relegated Coventry (0-1) and the sense of debt that carries over from that game could be bad news for Port Vale. Michael Brown’s men are currently four points off the League One survival pace and will be relegated if they lose here.
Given what’s at stake for the visitors, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a market that prices them up as the better team on neutral territory but that doesn’t make it right – or even close. Under normal circumstances, the Saddlers would probably be no bigger than 4/5 and almost any expected goals model would have them even shorter than that. Back the home win at 7/5.
Defeat at home to Bolton (0-2) on Saturday was Vale’s fifth on the spin without scoring a goal (aggregate 0-11) and they appear destined to slip out of the division with barely a whimper. However, we should at least expect them to be competitive from the first whistle at the Banks’s Stadium and the breakthrough might take a while to arrive.
Assuming Walsall get it, purely by being better, then the Valiants simply have to throw bodies forward and leave themselves stretched. A draw doesn’t send them down mathematically but a goal difference deficit of six would leave them needing a miracle at Fleetwood on the final day. Back the Walsall 2-0 correct score at 11/1.
Walsall v Port Vale [1×2] Best Odds : 2.3 ONLY at 1xBet
Tip: Walsall 2-0
Walsall v Port Vale [Correct Score] Best Odds : 11 ONLY at 1xBet