Don’t rely on Brighton beating QPR in Friday night’s live Championship game.
Brighton are back in the comfort zone where automatic promotion is concerned. A routine 3-1 win over Birmingham in midweek maintains a nine-point cushion and vastly superior goal difference on third-placed Huddersfield with six games remaining, so we can rule out any chance of Chris Hughton’s men choking as a result of their own anxieties at Loftus Road.
But that doesn’t mean victory over QPR will be a formality and there’s value in the standout 2.8 quote available on the home win. Some allowances ought to be made for incentives but whether the lure of promotion for Albion is worth nearly two-thirds of a goal is debatable to say the least. Based on shot data over the past 16 matches, Ian Holloway’s men ought to be favourites.
The Hoops have been edged out narrowly on their last two outings, losing 1-0 at Derby and Aston Villa, but Holloway has rotated well and will send out a team that isn’t short of legs, while the Seagulls have concerns over the fitness of Lewis Dunk who took ill and had to be substituted in midweek. If Rangers catch an early break, it could escalate in a night to forget for Albion.
So don’t shy away from fancy prices in the correct score market. Splitting a point between the QPR 2-0 and QPR 3-0 outcomes at 20 and 60 respectively might seem reckless in advance and could make me look silly in retrospect. But the price in both instances should be much shorter and Brighton’s seven away defeats since August 2015 have all been by two or three-goal margins.